Projection: If Washington maintains social distancing, state has passed worst of coronavirus outbreak

Coronavirus

SEATTLE – If Washingtonians maintain social distancing measures through May, the state has passed the peak of the virus, according to projections from a research arm of UW Medicine.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has been tracking data for each state and projecting peak dates of hospital resources and peak deaths per day. The IHME website has state-by-state calculations that change over time, based on new cases and deaths.

This past Saturday, the site predicted Washington would see its most deaths per day on April 11th. As of Monday morning, there’s a new projection that suggests Washington has already passed the date with the most deaths in a single day, listing that date as March 27th where there were 24 deaths reported in the state.

Deathsperday

All of this assumes that Washingtonians maintain full social distancing through May.

The site also tracks available hospital resources and projected use, including the number of hospital beds needed, the number of ICU beds needed and the number of invasive ventilators needed.

As of Monday morning, IHME projects Washington reached its peak resource use day on April 2nd.

The site projects Washington needs 185 ICU beds and that the state has 341 beds available.

Last weekend, Washington Governor Jay Inslee announced the state was returning 400 of the 500 ventilators it received from the federal stockpile to be used for New York and other hard-hit states.

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